OPEC has revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, marking the second consecutive reduction. The group expects consumption to rebound later, raising its 2027 forecast, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC on Thursday lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day (bpd), the producer group said in its monthly report, marking the second straight downward revision. The group continues to see a smaller impact on consumption since the Iran war started than other forecasters such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency.
OPEC said consumption would rebound later and raised its demand growth forecast for 2027. The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil routes, curbing millions of barrels of West Asia output. The resulting surge in fuel prices is hitting consumers and businesses around the world.
Key Points
- 2026 oil demand growth forecast cut to 970,000 bpd from 1.17 million bpd
- 2027 demand growth forecast raised to 1.73 million bpd, up 190,000 bpd
- Strait of Hormuz closure due to Iran war curbs supply
- OPEC+ crude output fell to 33.13 million bpd in May, down 190,000 bpd from April
- Iran output dropped sharply due to U.S. blockade
“The global economic performance in the first half of 2026 has remained resilient, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions,” OPEC said in the report, leaving its economic growth forecasts unchanged. The EIA and IEA both expect oil demand to decline this year as a result of the war.
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, had agreed to resume output increases from April, but the closure of Hormuz has made it impossible to lift production. The report said output fell further in May. OPEC+ crude output averaged 33.13 million bpd in May, down 190,000 bpd from April, the report said, citing secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor its production. Iran posted the biggest drop in output. The country’s exports were down sharply in May due to a U.S. blockade, tanker data shows. The May figure includes the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.