Key Facts
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday officially confirmed the development of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The weather office warned that the phenomenon is expected to strengthen during the ongoing southwest monsoon season, potentially suppressing rainfall across India.
According to the IMD's latest ENSO and IOD bulletin, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have crossed the El Niño threshold, and atmospheric conditions have begun responding to the warming ocean waters.
Details of the Announcement
“Currently, El Niño conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season. The atmosphere has responded to the warming sea surface temperatures, and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system now exhibits characteristics consistent with El Niño conditions,” the bulletin stated.
This confirmation comes days after the Japan Meteorological Agency had declared similar conditions. The IMD had earlier forecast a weaker monsoon, projecting rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — down from 92% forecast in April. The LPA based on 1971–2020 data is 87 cm. The forecast also indicated a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon.
Impact on Monsoon Progress
The announcement came as the southwest monsoon advanced into parts of West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, and Jharkhand. Under the influence of a western disturbance, a wet spell is likely over northwest India till June 13, while heatwave conditions are expected in isolated pockets of Marathwada, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Vidarbha.
Historically, El Niño is associated with weaker monsoons and harsher summers in India. This season has already seen a delayed onset over Kerala and a below-normal June forecast.
What Readers Should Know
The IMD noted that after a La Niña phase from August 2025 to February 2026, neutral conditions returned in March and continued through May. As of June, the three-month running mean Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly has exceeded the El Niño threshold of 0.5°C.
Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that warming in the Pacific is likely to intensify in the coming months, with moderate to strong El Niño conditions expected during the monsoon season.
Despite El Niño, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail and are likely to continue. A positive IOD can offset El Niño's impacts, but neutral IOD allows El Niño to negatively affect the monsoon. An IMD official said, “A positive IOD offsets the impact somewhat, but in the current conditions, El Niño will remain strong. This is why we are expecting 90% of the LPA. While monsoon progress is around normal presently, further progress may also be impacted by El Niño setting in.”
FAQ
What is El Niño and how does it affect India's monsoon?
El Niño is a climate pattern marked by warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It typically suppresses the Indian summer monsoon, leading to below-normal rainfall.
What is the IMD's latest rainfall forecast for 2026 monsoon?
IMD has forecast that the 2026 monsoon rainfall will be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon.
What is the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in monsoon?
A positive IOD can offset El Niño's negative impact on monsoon by bringing moisture to the Indian subcontinent. However, currently neutral IOD conditions prevail, allowing El Niño to weaken the monsoon.