A new study by Rutgers University estimates that US-based traders funneled between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket's banned offshore platform from May 2025 to April 2026. The research highlights widespread use of VPNs to bypass federal restrictions, with US activity concentrated on sports and election markets.
A study conducted by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane has estimated that people in the United States funneled between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket, the popular but federally banned prediction market platform. The research, which analyzed trading activity from May 2025 to the end of April 2026, provides the first major public attempt to quantify the scale of US participation on the offshore site.
Polymarket has been banned in the US since 2022 after federal regulators found it operated as an unregistered derivatives trading platform. Despite this, US traders are believed to use virtual private networks (VPNs) to disguise their locations and access the crypto-based platform. The study found that many of the highest-volume markets were US-centric, including those covering US elections and sporting events. US-based traders accounted for roughly half of the activity in Polymarket's sports vertical.
Key Points
- Estimated US trading volume on Polymarket's offshore platform: $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion over 12 months.
- US traders used VPNs to bypass the federal ban, with heavy activity in US election and sports markets.
- Polymarket's US-licensed app (Polymarket US) saw $1.6 billion in volume in April 2026, while the offshore platform hit $9 billion.
- The study projects US-based volume could reach $133 billion by 2030 if the offshore platform maintains market share.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has signaled willingness to use extraterritorial jurisdiction against bad actors.
To estimate US activity, Crane developed a methodology based on behavioral proxies, such as the timing of trades and the types of markets traded. US traders, for example, showed greater interest in domestic sporting events compared to international users. While imprecise, the approach offers a reasonable estimate, according to University of Toronto Scarborough finance professor Charles Martineau, who has studied Polymarket. "It's not perfect, but I think it provides a reasonable estimate of the fraction of the volume attributable to offshore trading," he said.
The study was commissioned and funded by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, a lobbying group whose members include Kalshi, Coinbase, and Crypto.com. Polymarket is not a member. Polymarket declined to comment on the findings. The CFTC, which does not normally have authority over offshore platforms, has indicated it may use extraterritorial jurisdiction on a case-by-case basis. In April, a US special forces soldier was charged with using classified information to profit from Polymarket trades, highlighting the platform's reach.