Category: Business News
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, 10 November 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (6:00 PM IST). It is the last inflation report the Federal Reserve will see before its 8-9 December meeting, and it comes just days after a stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed December rate-hike odds to about 75 percent.
What forecasters expect
The consensus expects headline CPI to rise 0.3 percent month on month in October, after a 0.6 percent rise in September. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2 percent, after 0.3 percent in September.
Model-based estimates point the same way. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast, updated on 3 November, shows headline CPI up 0.24 percent and core up 0.21 percent. TD Securities forecasts headline up 0.30 percent and core up 0.21 percent, while Continuum Economics projects 0.24 percent and 0.22 percent.
Core CPI rose 0.3 percent in both August and September. A third straight 0.3 percent print would strengthen the case for a December hike, while a 0.2 percent print would support the view that inflation is cooling.
One number will be missing
The BLS will not publish 12-month changes for most October indexes. That is because no prices were collected in October 2025, when the federal shutdown halted price collection, so there is no October 2025 index to compare with. Month-on-month figures are therefore the main comparison on Tuesday. Any annual inflation figure quoted for October is a model estimate, not an official BLS number.
The last official annual rates are September’s: headline CPI up 3.7 percent year on year and core up 2.6 percent.
Why it matters for rates
The October jobs report, released on 6 November, showed 165,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 4.1 percent. That pushed markets to price a December rate hike at about 75 to 78 percent, according to LSEG and CME FedWatch data.
The Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 28 October, in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of another quarter-point hike. A hot CPI print would make a 25-basis-point hike on 9 December look near certain. A soft print would push the next hike further out.
Producer price inflation (PPI) for October follows on Friday, 13 November, and is expected to rise 0.4 percent month on month. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, is due on 25 November.
Sources: Newsquawk Week Ahead, Dow Jones via TradingView, FXIFY Trading Desk Brief, BYDFI CPI preview, 6-7 November 2026.
